El precio actual de negociación de un contrato de mercado de predicción, reflejando la estimación de probabilidad del público.
En los prediction markets, cada contrato tiene un precio entre $0.00 y $1.00. El precio corresponde directamente a la probabilidad implícita del evento. Un contrato a $0.72 significa que el mercado cree que hay un 72% de probabilidad de que ocurra el evento. Usted gana comprando contratos infravalorados (cree que la probabilidad real es mayor que el precio de mercado) y vendiendo contratos sobrevalorados. Su riesgo máximo en cualquier contrato es el precio que pagó; su ganancia máxima es $1.00 menos el precio.
On Kalshi, a Fed cuts rates in March 2026 YES contract trades at $0.42, implying 42% probability. Each contract resolves at $1.00 if YES wins or $0 if NO wins. Buying 500 contracts costs $210. If the Fed cuts, you collect $500 for a $290 profit (138% ROI); if they hold, you lose $210.
Contract prices function as probability in decimal form — a $0.75 contract implies 75%, a $0.10 contract implies 10%. Bid-ask spreads widen on thin markets: a headline election contract might quote $0.58 bid / $0.59 ask, while a niche prop like Oscars Best Picture trades at $0.12 bid / $0.18 ask — a 6-point spread that eats small-edge trades. Always compare contract price to your own probability estimate and account for fees and spreads before sizing.
Profit = Settlement Price ($1 or $0) - Purchase Price<p>On Kalshi, a <strong>Fed cuts rates in March 2026</strong> YES contract trades at <strong>$0.42</strong>, implying 42% probability. Each contract resolves at <strong>$1.00 if YES wins</strong> or $0 if NO wins. Buying 500 contracts costs $210. If the Fed cuts, you collect $500 for a $290 profit (138% ROI); if they hold, you lose $210.</p><p>Contract prices function as probability in decimal form — a $0.75 contract implies 75%, a $0.10 contract implies 10%. Bid-ask spreads widen on thin markets: a headline election contract might quote <strong>$0.58 bid / $0.59 ask</strong>, while a niche prop like <em>Oscars Best Picture</em> trades at $0.12 bid / $0.18 ask — a 6-point spread that eats small-edge trades. Always compare contract price to your own probability estimate and account for fees and spreads before sizing.</p>
Un mercado donde usted negocia contratos sobre resultados de eventos reales, con precios que reflejan estimaciones de probabilidad del público.
La probabilidad de un resultado según lo implican las cuotas de apuesta, incluyendo el margen del bookmaker.
Apostar a ambos lados de un mercado en diferentes sportsbooks para garantizar ganancia sin importar el resultado.
El precio actual de negociación de un contrato de mercado de predicción, reflejando la estimación de probabilidad del público.
Profit = Settlement Price ($1 or $0) - Purchase Price
<p>On Kalshi, a <strong>Fed cuts rates in March 2026</strong> YES contract trades at <strong>$0.42</strong>, implying 42% probability. Each contract resolves at <strong>$1.00 if YES wins</strong> or $0 if NO wins. Buying 500 contracts costs $210. If the Fed cuts, you collect $500 for a $290 profit (138% ROI); if they hold, you lose $210.</p><p>Contract prices function as probability in decimal form — a $0.75 contract implies 75%, a $0.10 contract implies 10%. Bid-ask spreads widen on thin markets: a headline election contract might quote <strong>$0.58 bid / $0.59 ask</strong>, while a niche prop like <em>Oscars Best Picture</em> trades at $0.12 bid / $0.18 ask — a 6-point spread that eats small-edge trades. Always compare contract price to your own probability estimate and account for fees and spreads before sizing.</p>
Plataformas mejor calificadas revisadas por nuestro equipo editorial.