Le prix actuel d'un contrat de marché de prédiction, reflétant l'estimation de probabilité de la foule.
Dans les prediction markets, chaque contrat a un prix entre 0,00 $ et 1,00 $. Le prix correspond directement à la probabilité implicite de l'événement. Un contrat à 0,72 $ signifie que le marché croit qu'il y a 72 % de probabilité que l'événement se produise. Vous faites des profits en achetant des contrats sous-évalués (vous croyez que la probabilité réelle est supérieure au prix du marché) et en vendant des contrats surévalués. Votre risque maximal sur un contrat est le prix que vous avez payé; votre profit maximal est de 1,00 $ moins le prix.
On Kalshi, a Fed cuts rates in March 2026 YES contract trades at $0.42, implying 42% probability. Each contract resolves at $1.00 if YES wins or $0 if NO wins. Buying 500 contracts costs $210. If the Fed cuts, you collect $500 for a $290 profit (138% ROI); if they hold, you lose $210.
Contract prices function as probability in decimal form — a $0.75 contract implies 75%, a $0.10 contract implies 10%. Bid-ask spreads widen on thin markets: a headline election contract might quote $0.58 bid / $0.59 ask, while a niche prop like Oscars Best Picture trades at $0.12 bid / $0.18 ask — a 6-point spread that eats small-edge trades. Always compare contract price to your own probability estimate and account for fees and spreads before sizing.
Profit = Settlement Price ($1 or $0) - Purchase Price<p>On Kalshi, a <strong>Fed cuts rates in March 2026</strong> YES contract trades at <strong>$0.42</strong>, implying 42% probability. Each contract resolves at <strong>$1.00 if YES wins</strong> or $0 if NO wins. Buying 500 contracts costs $210. If the Fed cuts, you collect $500 for a $290 profit (138% ROI); if they hold, you lose $210.</p><p>Contract prices function as probability in decimal form — a $0.75 contract implies 75%, a $0.10 contract implies 10%. Bid-ask spreads widen on thin markets: a headline election contract might quote <strong>$0.58 bid / $0.59 ask</strong>, while a niche prop like <em>Oscars Best Picture</em> trades at $0.12 bid / $0.18 ask — a 6-point spread that eats small-edge trades. Always compare contract price to your own probability estimate and account for fees and spreads before sizing.</p>
Un marché où vous échangez des contrats sur des résultats d'événements réels, avec des prix reflétant les estimations de probabilité de la foule.
La probabilité d'un résultat telle qu'impliquée par les cotes, incluant la marge du bookmaker.
Parier sur les deux côtés d'un marché chez différents sportsbooks pour garantir un profit peu importe le résultat.
Le prix actuel d'un contrat de marché de prédiction, reflétant l'estimation de probabilité de la foule.
Profit = Settlement Price ($1 or $0) - Purchase Price
<p>On Kalshi, a <strong>Fed cuts rates in March 2026</strong> YES contract trades at <strong>$0.42</strong>, implying 42% probability. Each contract resolves at <strong>$1.00 if YES wins</strong> or $0 if NO wins. Buying 500 contracts costs $210. If the Fed cuts, you collect $500 for a $290 profit (138% ROI); if they hold, you lose $210.</p><p>Contract prices function as probability in decimal form — a $0.75 contract implies 75%, a $0.10 contract implies 10%. Bid-ask spreads widen on thin markets: a headline election contract might quote <strong>$0.58 bid / $0.59 ask</strong>, while a niche prop like <em>Oscars Best Picture</em> trades at $0.12 bid / $0.18 ask — a 6-point spread that eats small-edge trades. Always compare contract price to your own probability estimate and account for fees and spreads before sizing.</p>
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