Un parlay combinant des paris dont les résultats sont statistiquement liés, augmentant la probabilité réelle que les deux sortent.
Un parlay corrélé combine des paris où le résultat de l'un affecte la probabilité d'un autre. Par exemple, parier sur l'équipe gagnante plus le over du total est corrélé — si l'équipe favorite gagne par beaucoup, le total sera probablement dépassé.
Traditionnellement, les sportsbooks ne permettaient pas de combiner des paris corrélés dans des parlays parce que la corrélation rend les cotes du parlay trop généreuses. Aujourd'hui, de nombreuses maisons offrent des Same-Game Parlays (SGPs) avec des cotes spécialement ajustées pour tenir compte de la corrélation.
Comprendre la corrélation est important parce que les paiements de SGP offerts par les sportsbooks surestiment souvent à quel point la corrélation enlève de l'avantage, laissant des inefficacités exploitables aux parieurs informés.
Book parlays treat legs as independent, but a Chiefs -7.5 bet and a Chiefs team total Over 27.5 are tightly correlated: if Kansas City covers -7.5, they almost certainly scored more than 27. Tying both into a two-leg parlay at standard +264 pricing exploits the correlation, because the true joint probability is much higher than the book's implied 27.5%.
Pinnacle and Circa explicitly block correlated parlays, but many retail books let players build same-game parlays where a Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 passing TDs + Chiefs team total Over 27.5 ticket carries a built-in edge. SGPs apply a correlation adjustment to squeeze the price, but mispricings still leak through on weather-impacted totals and heavy favorites at home.
<p>Book parlays treat legs as independent, but a Chiefs <strong>-7.5</strong> bet and a Chiefs team total <strong>Over 27.5</strong> are tightly correlated: if Kansas City covers -7.5, they almost certainly scored more than 27. Tying both into a two-leg parlay at standard +264 pricing exploits the correlation, because the true joint probability is much higher than the book's implied 27.5%.</p><p>Pinnacle and Circa explicitly block correlated parlays, but many retail books let players build same-game parlays where a <strong>Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 passing TDs + Chiefs team total Over 27.5</strong> ticket carries a built-in edge. SGPs apply a correlation adjustment to squeeze the price, but mispricings still leak through on weather-impacted totals and heavy favorites at home.</p>
Un pari unique combinant deux sélections ou plus, où toutes doivent gagner pour que le pari paie.
Un pari sur un événement précis à l'intérieur d'un match plutôt que sur le résultat final.
Le montant moyen que vous pouvez espérer gagner ou perdre par pari au fil du temps.
Un parlay combinant des paris dont les résultats sont statistiquement liés, augmentant la probabilité réelle que les deux sortent.
<p>Book parlays treat legs as independent, but a Chiefs <strong>-7.5</strong> bet and a Chiefs team total <strong>Over 27.5</strong> are tightly correlated: if Kansas City covers -7.5, they almost certainly scored more than 27. Tying both into a two-leg parlay at standard +264 pricing exploits the correlation, because the true joint probability is much higher than the book's implied 27.5%.</p><p>Pinnacle and Circa explicitly block correlated parlays, but many retail books let players build same-game parlays where a <strong>Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 passing TDs + Chiefs team total Over 27.5</strong> ticket carries a built-in edge. SGPs apply a correlation adjustment to squeeze the price, but mispricings still leak through on weather-impacted totals and heavy favorites at home.</p>
Plateformes les mieux notées par notre équipe éditoriale.