Une mesure statistique indiquant à quel point les résultats sont dispersés par rapport à la moyenne.
L'écart-type quantifie l'ampleur de la variation des résultats de jeu. Concrètement, il vous indique de combien vos résultats réels sont susceptibles de différer de la valeur attendue.
Pour une série de mises, environ 68 % des résultats se situeront à l'intérieur d'un écart-type de la valeur attendue, et environ 95 % à l'intérieur de deux écarts-types. Plus l'écart-type est élevé, plus la plage des résultats probables est large.
Ce concept est essentiel pour comprendre si vos résultats reflètent une habileté ou de la chance. Si vos résultats réels se situent dans la plage attendue de variance, on ne peut pas en conclure grand-chose. Ce n'est que lorsque les résultats se situent constamment en dehors de la plage attendue que vous pouvez identifier un véritable avantage — ou un véritable problème dans votre stratégie.
You bet $100 flat on NFL spreads at −110 with a true 53% win rate. Expected profit per bet = +$1.43, but standard deviation per bet is roughly $99.72. Across 256 bets (one full season of ~16 bets/week), expected profit = $366, with 1-sigma range of ±$1,595.
That means a legitimately winning bettor has roughly a 32% chance of finishing the season in the red even though their edge is real. Two sigma (95% confidence) requires you to survive possible seasonal outcomes from −$2,824 to +$3,556. Sharps accept this reality and size plays accordingly — standard deviation, not win rate, dictates how much you can stake per play without risk of ruin.
<p>You bet <strong>$100 flat on NFL spreads at −110</strong> with a true 53% win rate. Expected profit per bet = <strong>+$1.43</strong>, but standard deviation per bet is roughly <strong>$99.72</strong>. Across 256 bets (one full season of ~16 bets/week), expected profit = $366, with <strong>1-sigma range of ±$1,595</strong>.</p><p>That means a legitimately winning bettor has roughly a <strong>32% chance of finishing the season in the red</strong> even though their edge is real. Two sigma (95% confidence) requires you to survive possible seasonal outcomes from <strong>−$2,824 to +$3,556</strong>. Sharps accept this reality and size plays accordingly — standard deviation, not win rate, dictates how much you can stake per play without risk of ruin.</p>
Une mesure statistique indiquant à quel point les résultats sont dispersés par rapport à la moyenne.
<p>You bet <strong>$100 flat on NFL spreads at −110</strong> with a true 53% win rate. Expected profit per bet = <strong>+$1.43</strong>, but standard deviation per bet is roughly <strong>$99.72</strong>. Across 256 bets (one full season of ~16 bets/week), expected profit = $366, with <strong>1-sigma range of ±$1,595</strong>.</p><p>That means a legitimately winning bettor has roughly a <strong>32% chance of finishing the season in the red</strong> even though their edge is real. Two sigma (95% confidence) requires you to survive possible seasonal outcomes from <strong>−$2,824 to +$3,556</strong>. Sharps accept this reality and size plays accordingly — standard deviation, not win rate, dictates how much you can stake per play without risk of ruin.</p>
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