Un contrato binario que paga $1 si ocurre un evento específico y $0 si no.
Los event contracts son los bloques de construcción de los prediction markets. Cada contrato está ligado a un resultado específico y verificable — "¿Ganará el Equipo X el campeonato?" o "¿Ganará el candidato Y la elección?" Los contratos son binarios: se liquidan exactamente a $1.00 (Sí) o $0.00 (No). En plataformas como Kalshi y Polymarket, puede negociar estos contratos antes de la liquidación, creando un mercado dinámico donde los precios fluctúan según nueva información. La CFTC regula los event contracts en las plataformas estadounidenses.
A Kalshi event contract on CPI coming in above 3.2% for December 2025 trades at $0.38 YES. A trader modeling inflation at 45% buys 1,000 contracts for $380. If December CPI prints 3.3%, YES resolves at $1, paying $1,000 — a $620 profit (163% ROI). If CPI prints 3.1%, the position is a $380 loss.
Event contracts are binary, cash-settled, and regulated by the CFTC on Kalshi. Unlike sports betting, they cover economics, politics, weather, and cultural events. They are legal nationwide in the US (as commodities contracts) and attract hedge funds, traders, and political forecasters. The key risk is resolution ambiguity — always read the fine-print resolution criteria before buying. A contract on "Will GDP exceed 2.5%" may use advance, second, or third estimates, and each reading can resolve differently.
<p>A Kalshi <strong>event contract on CPI coming in above 3.2% for December 2025</strong> trades at <strong>$0.38 YES</strong>. A trader modeling inflation at 45% buys 1,000 contracts for $380. If December CPI prints 3.3%, YES resolves at $1, paying $1,000 — a $620 profit (163% ROI). If CPI prints 3.1%, the position is a $380 loss.</p><p>Event contracts are binary, cash-settled, and regulated by the <strong>CFTC</strong> on Kalshi. Unlike sports betting, they cover economics, politics, weather, and cultural events. They are legal nationwide in the US (as commodities contracts) and attract hedge funds, traders, and political forecasters. The key risk is <strong>resolution ambiguity</strong> — always read the fine-print resolution criteria before buying. A contract on "Will GDP exceed 2.5%" may use advance, second, or third estimates, and each reading can resolve differently.</p>
Un mercado donde usted negocia contratos sobre resultados de eventos reales, con precios que reflejan estimaciones de probabilidad del público.
El precio actual de negociación de un contrato de mercado de predicción, reflejando la estimación de probabilidad del público.
La probabilidad de un resultado según lo implican las cuotas de apuesta, incluyendo el margen del bookmaker.
Un contrato binario que paga $1 si ocurre un evento específico y $0 si no.
<p>A Kalshi <strong>event contract on CPI coming in above 3.2% for December 2025</strong> trades at <strong>$0.38 YES</strong>. A trader modeling inflation at 45% buys 1,000 contracts for $380. If December CPI prints 3.3%, YES resolves at $1, paying $1,000 — a $620 profit (163% ROI). If CPI prints 3.1%, the position is a $380 loss.</p><p>Event contracts are binary, cash-settled, and regulated by the <strong>CFTC</strong> on Kalshi. Unlike sports betting, they cover economics, politics, weather, and cultural events. They are legal nationwide in the US (as commodities contracts) and attract hedge funds, traders, and political forecasters. The key risk is <strong>resolution ambiguity</strong> — always read the fine-print resolution criteria before buying. A contract on "Will GDP exceed 2.5%" may use advance, second, or third estimates, and each reading can resolve differently.</p>
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