Un contrat binaire qui paie 1 $ si un événement précis survient et 0 $ sinon.
Les event contracts sont les blocs de construction des prediction markets. Chaque contrat est lié à un résultat spécifique et vérifiable — « L'Équipe X gagnera-t-elle le championnat ? » ou « Le candidat Y gagnera-t-il l'élection ? » Les contrats sont binaires : ils se règlent exactement à 1,00 $ (Oui) ou 0,00 $ (Non). Sur des plateformes comme Kalshi et Polymarket, vous pouvez négocier ces contrats avant le règlement, créant un marché dynamique où les prix fluctuent en fonction de nouvelles informations. La CFTC réglemente les event contracts sur les plateformes américaines.
A Kalshi event contract on CPI coming in above 3.2% for December 2025 trades at $0.38 YES. A trader modeling inflation at 45% buys 1,000 contracts for $380. If December CPI prints 3.3%, YES resolves at $1, paying $1,000 — a $620 profit (163% ROI). If CPI prints 3.1%, the position is a $380 loss.
Event contracts are binary, cash-settled, and regulated by the CFTC on Kalshi. Unlike sports betting, they cover economics, politics, weather, and cultural events. They are legal nationwide in the US (as commodities contracts) and attract hedge funds, traders, and political forecasters. The key risk is resolution ambiguity — always read the fine-print resolution criteria before buying. A contract on "Will GDP exceed 2.5%" may use advance, second, or third estimates, and each reading can resolve differently.
<p>A Kalshi <strong>event contract on CPI coming in above 3.2% for December 2025</strong> trades at <strong>$0.38 YES</strong>. A trader modeling inflation at 45% buys 1,000 contracts for $380. If December CPI prints 3.3%, YES resolves at $1, paying $1,000 — a $620 profit (163% ROI). If CPI prints 3.1%, the position is a $380 loss.</p><p>Event contracts are binary, cash-settled, and regulated by the <strong>CFTC</strong> on Kalshi. Unlike sports betting, they cover economics, politics, weather, and cultural events. They are legal nationwide in the US (as commodities contracts) and attract hedge funds, traders, and political forecasters. The key risk is <strong>resolution ambiguity</strong> — always read the fine-print resolution criteria before buying. A contract on "Will GDP exceed 2.5%" may use advance, second, or third estimates, and each reading can resolve differently.</p>
Un marché où vous échangez des contrats sur des résultats d'événements réels, avec des prix reflétant les estimations de probabilité de la foule.
Le prix actuel d'un contrat de marché de prédiction, reflétant l'estimation de probabilité de la foule.
La probabilité d'un résultat telle qu'impliquée par les cotes, incluant la marge du bookmaker.
Un contrat binaire qui paie 1 $ si un événement précis survient et 0 $ sinon.
<p>A Kalshi <strong>event contract on CPI coming in above 3.2% for December 2025</strong> trades at <strong>$0.38 YES</strong>. A trader modeling inflation at 45% buys 1,000 contracts for $380. If December CPI prints 3.3%, YES resolves at $1, paying $1,000 — a $620 profit (163% ROI). If CPI prints 3.1%, the position is a $380 loss.</p><p>Event contracts are binary, cash-settled, and regulated by the <strong>CFTC</strong> on Kalshi. Unlike sports betting, they cover economics, politics, weather, and cultural events. They are legal nationwide in the US (as commodities contracts) and attract hedge funds, traders, and political forecasters. The key risk is <strong>resolution ambiguity</strong> — always read the fine-print resolution criteria before buying. A contract on "Will GDP exceed 2.5%" may use advance, second, or third estimates, and each reading can resolve differently.</p>
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