Correlated Parlay
A parlay combining bets whose outcomes are statistically linked, increasing the true probability of both hitting.
A correlated parlay combines bets where one outcome makes the other more likely. For example, betting a running back to score a touchdown AND his team to win — if he scores, the team is more likely to be ahead.
Sportsbooks have cracked down on the most obvious correlated parlays, but same-game parlays (SGPs) on platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel allow some degree of correlation. The key is understanding which combinations are positively correlated.
The math on correlated parlays is tricky. Sportsbooks price SGPs using models that attempt to account for correlation, but there may be edges where the model underestimates the correlation between certain outcomes.
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