The Kelly Criterion for Beginners

intermediate9:00bankroll

The Kelly Criterion tells you how much to bet given your edge and your bankroll. This video derives the formula from first principles, shows why full Kelly is risky, and explains the half-Kelly and quarter-Kelly rules pros use in practice.

Lesson objectives

  • Explain Kelly sizing as an edge-versus-risk tradeoff.
  • Show full, half, and quarter Kelly in one clean example.
  • Warn when Kelly inputs are too uncertain to trust.