Favorite (Chalk)

The favorite (also called the "chalk") is the team or player expected to win according to the odds. On the moneyline, the favorite has negative odds (e.g., -150), and on the spread, they give points (e.g., -6.5).

Betting favorites is not inherently bad — the odds account for the higher probability of winning. The question is always whether the odds offer value relative to the true probability.

Heavy favorites (e.g., -500 or more) are particularly risky because a single loss wipes out the profits from many winning bets. This is sometimes called "picking up pennies in front of a steamroller."