A market where you trade contracts on real-world event outcomes, with prices reflecting crowd probability estimates.
Prediction markets (like Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt) let you buy and sell contracts that pay out based on whether an event occurs. A contract priced at $0.65 implies a 65% probability of the event happening. If the event occurs, the contract settles at $1.00; if not, it settles at $0.00. Unlike traditional betting, prediction markets allow you to sell positions before settlement — you can take profit or cut losses without waiting for the outcome. Prediction markets have been shown to be among the most accurate forecasting tools available, often outperforming expert panels and polls.
The probability of an outcome as implied by the betting odds, including the bookmaker's margin.
Betting both sides of a market at different sportsbooks to guarantee a profit regardless of outcome.
The average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet over time.
A market where you trade contracts on real-world event outcomes, with prices reflecting crowd probability estimates.
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