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Manifold is a play-money prediction market platform that allows anyone to create and trade on prediction markets for any topic. Founded in 2022 by former Google engineers, Manifold uses "mana" (play currency) and operates as both a social network and forecasting tool.
Manifold's open market creation model means there are thousands of active markets on topics ranging from AI development timelines to local politics. The platform has become popular in the effective altruism and rationalist communities as a tool for calibrated forecasting.
Editor's Verdict
Manifold is the best free sandbox for prediction market thinking — practice forecasting on millions of topics at zero cost before trading real money on regulated platforms.
Last reviewed: February 2026 · BonusBell Editorial Team
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