PredictIt

PredictIt is the long-running political prediction market operated by Victoria University of Wellington in New Zealand under a CFTC no-action letter originally issued in October 2014. After nearly getting shut down in 2022 and spending three years in federal litigation, PredictIt is back in 2026 with refreshed CFTC no-action relief and higher position limits. It remains the single most important US-accessible venue for politics-specific event contracts with a continuous multi-year track record.

Overview

PredictIt lists binary contracts that pay $1 if a specified political outcome occurs and $0 otherwise, traded between users on a continuous orderbook. Victoria University operates the market for academic research purposes, with data made available to affiliated researchers. This academic framing is load-bearing: it is the legal basis for the no-action letter, and it is why the position caps exist.

Market Coverage

Almost exclusively US and international politics: presidential primaries and general elections, congressional control, cabinet and Supreme Court confirmations, state gubernatorial and Senate races, UK and European elections, and a handful of related questions (Fed chair, Speaker of the House). Sports, crypto, entertainment, and weather are not offered.

Pricing & Fees

PredictIt charges a 10% fee on net profits at market close and a 5% withdrawal fee on funds sent back to users. Those fees are materially higher than Kalshi, Polymarket, or IEM, and they meaningfully eat into returns on tight political markets. There are no explicit per-trade commissions.

Banking

Deposits via debit card and bank transfer. Withdrawals via bank transfer (subject to the 5% fee). Full identity verification is required. The minimum deposit is low. There is no crypto support.

Ongoing Promos / Liquidity Programs

None. PredictIt does not run promotional offers, referral bonuses, or liquidity incentives. This is consistent with its academic-research framing under the CFTC no-action letter, which prohibits general-public advertising.

Regulatory Reality

PredictIt's legal history is the most contested of any platform on this list, and the current status is: operating with CFTC no-action relief, as of December 2025. Timeline: The original 2014 CFTC no-action letter to Victoria University capped trader position size at $850 per contract and markets at 5,000 traders. In August 2022 the CFTC issued a withdrawal notice that would have shut PredictIt down. PredictIt and a group of traders sued in Clarke v. CFTC, and the Fifth Circuit issued an opinion (Case No. 22-51124) that sent the matter back to the CFTC. PredictIt continued operating through the litigation. In December 2025 the CFTC issued fresh no-action relief to PredictIt (alongside Polymarket, Gemini, and LedgerX/MIAX), with amended terms: per-contract position limits raised to $3,500 and the per-contract trader cap removed. PredictIt relaunched a redesigned interface reflecting the new limits. The underlying academic-purpose structure remains intact. US residents can use PredictIt legally in all 50 states.

User Experience

The redesigned 2025 interface is a significant upgrade from the long-running legacy UI — cleaner charts, better orderbook visibility, faster market pages. Mobile web works well. The community is small, politically literate, and heavily concentrated around the most active election markets, which means liquidity on headline questions is usually adequate even if thinner than it was pre-2022.

The Bottom Line

PredictIt is the only real-money political-only prediction market US residents have used continuously for over a decade, and the December 2025 CFTC no-action relief removes the shutdown cloud that had hung over the platform since 2022. Fees are higher than the commercial alternatives (10% on profits, 5% on withdrawals), but for serious political forecasters the depth on US election markets, the continuous multi-year historical data, and the unambiguous legal status still make it the clearest choice in its niche.