Overview

A teaser is a parlay variant that lets you adjust the point spread or total in your favor by a fixed number of points (typically 6, 6.5, or 7 in football) in exchange for a reduced payout. The Teaser Calculator computes adjusted lines, combined payout, and the breakeven win rate per leg — and flags whether a given teaser qualifies as a Wong teaser, the small set of historically +EV teasers identified by Stanford Wong.

The Formula

Formula: RequiredWinRate = (1 / TeaserDecimalOdds) ^ (1 / NumLegs)

A standard 2-team 6-point football teaser pays −110 (decimal 1.909). Required per-leg win rate = (1 / 1.909) ^ 0.5 = 72.4%. Each leg must clear the new spread 72.4% of the time just to break even.

When To Use It

Use it whenever you consider a teaser, especially in NFL where crossing the key numbers of 3 and 7 dramatically increases per-leg win probability. The classic Wong teaser moves a favorite of −7.5 to −8.5 down to −1.5 to −2.5, or an underdog of +1.5 to +2.5 up to +7.5 to +8.5 — both cross both key numbers.

Worked Example

Example 1: A 2-team 6-point teaser at −110 (1.909). You tease the Bills from −7.5 to −1.5 (crosses 3 and 7) and the Chiefs from −8 to −2 (crosses 3 and 7). Historical hit rate on these crossings is roughly 75% per leg, giving a combined 56.3% — well above the 52.4% breakeven. $100 stake returns $191 (profit $91). Long-run EV ~ +7%.

Example 2: A 3-team 6-point teaser at +160 (decimal 2.6). Required per-leg = (1/2.6)^(1/3) = 73.1%. You tease three random spreads with 65% per-leg hit rates — combined 27.5%. Expected value = 0.275 × $260 − $100 = −$28.50. Random teasers are heavy losers; only crossings of 3 and 7 turn them positive.

Common Mistakes

• Teasing through key numbers in basketball — there are no equivalents to NFL’s 3 and 7.
• Adding non-Wong legs to a Wong teaser, which dilutes the edge to negative.
• Using 7-point teasers, which shift payouts enough to wipe out the crossing edge.
• Teasing totals without checking historical scoring distributions for that league.