The current trading price of a prediction market contract, reflecting the crowd's probability estimate.
In prediction markets, each contract has a price between $0.00 and $1.00. The price directly corresponds to the implied probability of the event. A contract at $0.72 means the market believes there is a 72% chance the event will occur. You profit by buying contracts that are underpriced (you think the true probability is higher than the market price) and selling contracts that are overpriced. Your maximum risk on any contract is the price you paid; your maximum profit is $1.00 minus the price.
On Kalshi, a Fed cuts rates in March 2026 YES contract trades at $0.42, implying 42% probability. Each contract resolves at $1.00 if YES wins or $0 if NO wins. Buying 500 contracts costs $210. If the Fed cuts, you collect $500 for a $290 profit (138% ROI); if they hold, you lose $210.
Contract prices function as probability in decimal form — a $0.75 contract implies 75%, a $0.10 contract implies 10%. Bid-ask spreads widen on thin markets: a headline election contract might quote $0.58 bid / $0.59 ask, while a niche prop like Oscars Best Picture trades at $0.12 bid / $0.18 ask — a 6-point spread that eats small-edge trades. Always compare contract price to your own probability estimate and account for fees and spreads before sizing.
Profit = Settlement Price ($1 or $0) - Purchase Price<p>On Kalshi, a <strong>Fed cuts rates in March 2026</strong> YES contract trades at <strong>$0.42</strong>, implying 42% probability. Each contract resolves at <strong>$1.00 if YES wins</strong> or $0 if NO wins. Buying 500 contracts costs $210. If the Fed cuts, you collect $500 for a $290 profit (138% ROI); if they hold, you lose $210.</p><p>Contract prices function as probability in decimal form — a $0.75 contract implies 75%, a $0.10 contract implies 10%. Bid-ask spreads widen on thin markets: a headline election contract might quote <strong>$0.58 bid / $0.59 ask</strong>, while a niche prop like <em>Oscars Best Picture</em> trades at $0.12 bid / $0.18 ask — a 6-point spread that eats small-edge trades. Always compare contract price to your own probability estimate and account for fees and spreads before sizing.</p>
A market where you trade contracts on real-world event outcomes, with prices reflecting crowd probability estimates.
The probability of an outcome as implied by the betting odds, including the bookmaker's margin.
Betting both sides of a market at different sportsbooks to exploit a price gap before execution risk.
The current trading price of a prediction market contract, reflecting the crowd's probability estimate.
Profit = Settlement Price ($1 or $0) - Purchase Price
<p>On Kalshi, a <strong>Fed cuts rates in March 2026</strong> YES contract trades at <strong>$0.42</strong>, implying 42% probability. Each contract resolves at <strong>$1.00 if YES wins</strong> or $0 if NO wins. Buying 500 contracts costs $210. If the Fed cuts, you collect $500 for a $290 profit (138% ROI); if they hold, you lose $210.</p><p>Contract prices function as probability in decimal form — a $0.75 contract implies 75%, a $0.10 contract implies 10%. Bid-ask spreads widen on thin markets: a headline election contract might quote <strong>$0.58 bid / $0.59 ask</strong>, while a niche prop like <em>Oscars Best Picture</em> trades at $0.12 bid / $0.18 ask — a 6-point spread that eats small-edge trades. Always compare contract price to your own probability estimate and account for fees and spreads before sizing.</p>
Editorial platform cards with source-backed notes. Verify current terms on the operator site before acting.