The actual mathematical probability of an outcome, without any bookmaker margin.
True odds represent the actual probability of an event occurring, expressed as betting odds. They're what the odds would be if there were zero vig or house edge. In practice, true odds are theoretical because there's always some uncertainty.
In casino games, true odds are calculable because the probabilities are known. The craps Odds bet pays at true odds, which is why it has zero house edge. In sports betting, true odds are estimated through models and market efficiency.
The gap between the true odds and the odds you're offered determines your expected value. Consistently finding bets where the offered odds are better than the true odds is the definition of a winning strategy.
A point of 8 on a Golden Nugget craps table has true odds of 6:5 — five ways to roll a 7 versus six ways to roll an 8 (actually 5 vs 6, giving the 7 the edge for rolling first). The casinos place bet pays only 7:6, skimming 1.52% as house edge. The free odds bet pays the full 6:5, with zero house edge.
True odds on a roulette single number are 37:1 (American wheel has 38 pockets), but the payout is only 35:1 — a 5.26% house edge baked into the 2-number gap. Understanding true vs paid odds immediately exposes every bad bet in the casino: any wager paying less than true is losing long-term, and by exactly the gap between true and paid divided by the probability.
<p>A point of 8 on a Golden Nugget craps table has <strong>true odds of 6:5</strong> — five ways to roll a 7 versus six ways to roll an 8 (actually 5 vs 6, giving the 7 the edge for rolling first). The casinos <strong>place bet</strong> pays only <strong>7:6</strong>, skimming 1.52% as house edge. The <strong>free odds bet</strong> pays the full 6:5, with zero house edge.</p><p>True odds on a roulette single number are <strong>37:1</strong> (American wheel has 38 pockets), but the payout is only <strong>35:1</strong> — a 5.26% house edge baked into the 2-number gap. Understanding true vs paid odds immediately exposes every bad bet in the casino: any wager paying less than true is losing long-term, and by exactly the gap between true and paid divided by the probability.</p>
The true fair odds after removing the sportsbook's built-in margin.
The probability of an outcome as implied by the betting odds, including the bookmaker's margin.
The average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet over time.
A zero house edge bet placed behind a Pass/Come or Don't Pass/Don't Come bet.
The actual mathematical probability of an outcome, without any bookmaker margin.
<p>A point of 8 on a Golden Nugget craps table has <strong>true odds of 6:5</strong> — five ways to roll a 7 versus six ways to roll an 8 (actually 5 vs 6, giving the 7 the edge for rolling first). The casinos <strong>place bet</strong> pays only <strong>7:6</strong>, skimming 1.52% as house edge. The <strong>free odds bet</strong> pays the full 6:5, with zero house edge.</p><p>True odds on a roulette single number are <strong>37:1</strong> (American wheel has 38 pockets), but the payout is only <strong>35:1</strong> — a 5.26% house edge baked into the 2-number gap. Understanding true vs paid odds immediately exposes every bad bet in the casino: any wager paying less than true is losing long-term, and by exactly the gap between true and paid divided by the probability.</p>
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