True Odds
The actual mathematical probability of an outcome, without any bookmaker margin.
True odds represent the actual probability of an event occurring, expressed as betting odds. They're what the odds would be if there were zero vig or house edge. In practice, true odds are theoretical because there's always some uncertainty.
In casino games, true odds are calculable because the probabilities are known. The craps Odds bet pays at true odds, which is why it has zero house edge. In sports betting, true odds are estimated through models and market efficiency.
The gap between the true odds and the odds you're offered determines your expected value. Consistently finding bets where the offered odds are better than the true odds is the definition of a winning strategy.
Related Terms
No-Vig Odds
The true fair odds after removing the sportsbook's built-in margin.
Implied Probability
The probability of an outcome as implied by the betting odds, including the bookmaker's margin.
Expected Value (EV)
The average amount you can expect to win or lose per bet over time.
Odds Bet (Craps)
A zero house edge bet placed behind a Pass/Come or Don't Pass/Don't Come bet.
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