Metaculus

Metaculus is a reputation-based forecasting platform, not a real-money prediction market. It is operated by Metaculus, Inc., a public-benefit corporation, and has been running since 2015. Users submit probability estimates on carefully structured questions and earn points based on how accurate their predictions are compared to the community and to ground truth. There is no real-money trading and no orderbook. Some tournaments do pay cash prizes to top performers, but the day-to-day product is a forecasting track record system.

Overview

Metaculus exists because serious forecasting research needed a platform where questions could be rigorously specified, resolved by trusted moderators, and scored over long time horizons. It is used by academic researchers, government forecasting programs (including IARPA-adjacent work), AI safety organizations, and individual superforecasters who want calibrated track records.

Market Coverage

Questions span geopolitics, AI and machine learning progress, biosecurity and pandemics, climate and environment, space exploration, economics, and technology milestones. Questions are curated and must pass an editorial and community review process before going live — this is the opposite of Manifold's anyone-can-create model. The tradeoff is quality over quantity.

Pricing & Fees

Free to use. No account fees, no transaction fees. Metaculus is funded by grants, tournament sponsorships, and research contracts. There is nothing to buy and nothing to sell.

Banking

None. Users do not deposit money, do not withdraw money, and do not post collateral. Accounts are free and email-based. No KYC.

Ongoing Promos / Liquidity Programs

Metaculus runs regular tournaments with real cash prize pools funded by sponsors — historically including Open Philanthropy, the Future of Life Institute, Bridgewater Associates, and Astral Codex Ten. The 2026 Bridgewater x Metaculus competition and the ACX 2026 Prediction Contest are active examples. Tournament prizes are distributed to the top forecasters measured by a calibration-aware scoring rule. This is real cash — but it is earned through demonstrated skill in sponsored contests, not by trading against other users for profit.

Regulatory Reality

Metaculus does not fall under CFTC or SEC jurisdiction because there are no contracts, no orderbook, no counterparties, and no real-money trading in the day-to-day product. Users submit forecasts, which are information, not instruments. Tournament prize pools are structured as skill-contest awards, which is the same legal category as chess tournaments and hackathons. US residents can use Metaculus legally without restriction, regardless of state. No KYC, no geo-blocking, no problem.

User Experience

The Metaculus interface is clean and information-dense. Each question page shows the full distribution of community predictions over time, the resolution criteria, comments, and the user's own prediction history. Scoring is based on calibration and resolution relative to the community, and your track record is public. This is a genuinely useful tool for anyone who wants to quantify how good they are at forecasting.

Metaculus also runs FutureEval, an AI forecasting benchmark that tracks how well large language models predict real-world outcomes. Developers can enter AI systems in bot tournaments for substantial cash prizes.

The Bottom Line

Metaculus is the gold standard for serious, calibration-focused forecasting practice in the US. It is not a way to make money day-to-day — points are reputation, not dollars. If you want real cash exposure, you need Kalshi, Polymarket, or FanDuel Predicts. If you want to become a measurably better forecaster, build a public track record, and compete in high-quality tournaments with sponsor-funded cash prizes, Metaculus has no real peer. It is also the only platform on this list that genuinely contributes to forecasting research literature.