A binary contract that pays $1 if a specific event occurs and $0 if it does not.
Event contracts are the building blocks of prediction markets. Each contract is tied to a specific, verifiable outcome — "Will Team X win the championship?" or "Will candidate Y win the election?" Contracts are binary: they settle at exactly $1.00 (Yes) or $0.00 (No). On platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, you can trade these contracts before settlement, creating a dynamic market where prices fluctuate based on new information. The CFTC regulates event contracts on US platforms.
A Kalshi event contract on CPI coming in above 3.2% for December 2025 trades at $0.38 YES. A trader modeling inflation at 45% buys 1,000 contracts for $380. If December CPI prints 3.3%, YES resolves at $1, paying $1,000 — a $620 profit (163% ROI). If CPI prints 3.1%, the position is a $380 loss.
Event contracts are binary, cash-settled, and regulated by the CFTC on Kalshi. Unlike sports betting, they cover economics, politics, weather, and cultural events. They are legal nationwide in the US (as commodities contracts) and attract hedge funds, traders, and political forecasters. The key risk is resolution ambiguity — always read the fine-print resolution criteria before buying. A contract on "Will GDP exceed 2.5%" may use advance, second, or third estimates, and each reading can resolve differently.
<p>A Kalshi <strong>event contract on CPI coming in above 3.2% for December 2025</strong> trades at <strong>$0.38 YES</strong>. A trader modeling inflation at 45% buys 1,000 contracts for $380. If December CPI prints 3.3%, YES resolves at $1, paying $1,000 — a $620 profit (163% ROI). If CPI prints 3.1%, the position is a $380 loss.</p><p>Event contracts are binary, cash-settled, and regulated by the <strong>CFTC</strong> on Kalshi. Unlike sports betting, they cover economics, politics, weather, and cultural events. They are legal nationwide in the US (as commodities contracts) and attract hedge funds, traders, and political forecasters. The key risk is <strong>resolution ambiguity</strong> — always read the fine-print resolution criteria before buying. A contract on "Will GDP exceed 2.5%" may use advance, second, or third estimates, and each reading can resolve differently.</p>
A market where you trade contracts on real-world event outcomes, with prices reflecting crowd probability estimates.
The current trading price of a prediction market contract, reflecting the crowd's probability estimate.
The probability of an outcome as implied by the betting odds, including the bookmaker's margin.
A binary contract that pays $1 if a specific event occurs and $0 if it does not.
<p>A Kalshi <strong>event contract on CPI coming in above 3.2% for December 2025</strong> trades at <strong>$0.38 YES</strong>. A trader modeling inflation at 45% buys 1,000 contracts for $380. If December CPI prints 3.3%, YES resolves at $1, paying $1,000 — a $620 profit (163% ROI). If CPI prints 3.1%, the position is a $380 loss.</p><p>Event contracts are binary, cash-settled, and regulated by the <strong>CFTC</strong> on Kalshi. Unlike sports betting, they cover economics, politics, weather, and cultural events. They are legal nationwide in the US (as commodities contracts) and attract hedge funds, traders, and political forecasters. The key risk is <strong>resolution ambiguity</strong> — always read the fine-print resolution criteria before buying. A contract on "Will GDP exceed 2.5%" may use advance, second, or third estimates, and each reading can resolve differently.</p>
Editorial platform cards with source-backed notes. Verify current terms on the operator site before acting.