A binary contract that pays $1 if a specific event occurs and $0 if it does not.
Event contracts are the building blocks of prediction markets. Each contract is tied to a specific, verifiable outcome — "Will Team X win the championship?" or "Will candidate Y win the election?" Contracts are binary: they settle at exactly $1.00 (Yes) or $0.00 (No). On platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, you can trade these contracts before settlement, creating a dynamic market where prices fluctuate based on new information. The CFTC regulates event contracts on US platforms.
A market where you trade contracts on real-world event outcomes, with prices reflecting crowd probability estimates.
The current trading price of a prediction market contract, reflecting the crowd's probability estimate.
The probability of an outcome as implied by the betting odds, including the bookmaker's margin.
A binary contract that pays $1 if a specific event occurs and $0 if it does not.
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